13. October 2011 04:46
After several days of pushing higher, yields are coming back down today as the markets adopt a more cautious tone. After a string of better than expected numbers, economic data released today in the US – Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims as well as the Trade Balance – is simply meeting expectations, and corporate earnings season (kicked off this week) has been lackluster so far. This morning, worse than expected earnings at JPMorgan have influence a negative tone in the market.
Additionally, while there have not been any significant setbacks in terms of the developing European plan to bolster its banking system, there has not been a lot of progress either.
Data tomorrow includes US Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, and Business Inventories. For Canada, it is limited to Manufacturing Shipments.
6. October 2011 04:16
The bond market has continued selling off this morning as several reasons for optimism have recently emerged. In Europe, the epicenter of most of the recent problems, the ECB has reinitiated a program of providing loans of up to one year to member banks, in addition to resuming the purchase of covered bonds. Both measures combined improve the resiliency of the European banking system.
Additionally, Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims for last week in the US were stronger than expected (building on yesterday’s ‘beat’ in ADP Payrolls), while in Canada, the Ivey PMI for September was also stronger than expected.
Friday morning is important for Canadian data. The US releases the Employment Report for September, along with Wholesale Trade and Consumer Credit numbers for August, while Canada also releases its Employment Report for September.
24. September 2010 10:01
This morning’s selloff in the bond market seems to have precipitated by a decent print on US Durable Goods Orders for August. While the full category was down 1.3% (consensus was -1.0%), the Durable Goods ex Transportation was up 2.0% (consensus +1.0%). Transportation orders tend to be very lumpy and unpredictable, so the market usually puts heavy emphasis on this latter reading. Additionally, the July numbers were revised higher.
Looking ahead to next week, we have:
Canada – Industrial Production Price Index (Wed), Real GDP for July (Thu),
US – S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Richmond Fed, Consumer Confidence (Tue), Chicago PMI, Weekly Jobs Report, Q2 GDP (3rd estimate) (Thu).