12. November 2013 09:12
There are no economic reports on the calendar today in the U.S. or Canada, but finance minister Jim Flaherty is delivering his fall fiscal and economic update. It's expected he'll be projecting a smaller deficit than originally forecast and a bigger surplus for 2015-16. Ottawa's fiscal plan is seen as pretty much on target so changes or surprises are deemed unlikely.
There's one international report of note today, consumer inflation slowed to an annualized rate of 2.2% in Britain in October, down from 2.7% in September. It's the slowest pace in about a year.
North American markets started the day down, but began to show signs of recovery shortly after the open.
The bond market is open again after a long weekend and yields are up 1- 2 bps.
11. November 2013 09:12
A very light day for data with no reports out of the U.S. or Canada. The bond market here is closed for the Remembrance Day holiday.
North American equities markets were all higher in the early part of the session, carrying on the generally positive tone of recent weeks. Most investors appear to be taking their cues from earnings reports.
Things will pick up later this week with the Wednesday release of the Teranet index of Canadian resale home prices for September. StatsCan delivers its read on new home prices on Thursday. Friday sees a heavy load of data out of the U.S. with capacity utilization, wholesale trade and the New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index. Canadian manufacturing shipments for September are also out on Friday.
8. November 2013 09:11
The two key reports of the week are out today and they are all about jobs. The U.S. employment numbers rose by 204,000 in October. The figure is far better than expected in light of the 16-day federal government shutdown. But the U.S. unemployment rate has climbed to 7.3%, up 0.1%.
In Canada the unemployment rate held steady at 6.9% in October. The economy added about 13,000 jobs for the month -- mostly in Quebec.
And Canadian housing starts were up in October pushing CMHC's annualized estimate to a little more than 198,000 units. That's up about 2,200 from September, which was revised upward. CMHC says the numbers are in keeping with its estimates. But there are some fears the increase may be seen as evidence of overheating in the housing market.
North American markets opened higher after closing lower yesterday.
Bond yields have jumped up 10 bps. The bond market is closing early today and will remain closed on Monday, for the Remembrance Day holiday.
7. November 2013 09:11
The European Central Bank surprised just about everyone today, cutting its benchmark interest in half to .25%. It had been expected the bank would hint at a rate cut -- probably in December -- but it went ahead today.
Markets liked the ECB move and North American equities started the day mixed, but mainly higher.
The other notable economic data today comes out of the U.S. where Q3 GDP clocked-in with a 2.8% annualized increase. That is 0.3% acceleration over Q2 and is nearly a point higher than expectations.
The weekly read on first time applications for jobless benefits in the U.S. dropped by 9,000, pushing totals back to pre-recession levels. The four week rolling average was down 9,250.
Bond yields are +1 to -4 bps.
6. November 2013 09:10
The value of building permits issued in Canada rose 1.7% in September, led by housing. That's the 7th monthly increase this year but it wasn't as high as expected. Forecasts had called for a 6% increase on the month. On a year-over-year basis September is just 0.2% higher that in 2012.
The value of building permits for housing rose 3.3% in September but compared to a year ago housing permits were down 2.9%. The non-residential sector fell by 0.8%.
The economic numbers out of the U.S. seem to have investors shifting to a “taper on” mind set ahead of tomorrow's report on Q3 GDP.
North American markets opened mixed following yesterday's, generally, down close.
Bond yields are up 1 bps.
5. November 2013 09:10
There is just one report of note today and it is out of the U.S.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite rose one point, to 55.4 in October. Expectations had been for a 0.4 point drop. Significantly, the employment sub-index rose to 56.2 from September's 52.7, suggesting an acceleration in the pace of hiring. That could be borne out on Friday when the U.S. employment numbers arrive.
Canada's employment figures are out on Friday as well. We'll also get the stats on housing starts. Canadian building permit data for September hits tomorrow.
North American markets started the day mixed with the TSX higher and Wall St. lower.
Bond yields are up 2 - 4 pbs.
4. November 2013 09:09
It is a light start to a week that will be back-end loaded with data. There are no Canadian reports today and just one out of the United States.
U.S. factory orders for September were up 1.7%, lifted by aircraft orders. However, the core number -- which excludes volatile items like aircraft -- actually fell 1.3%.
August factory orders, which were delayed by the U.S. government shutdown were also released today, but they were, of course superseded by the September report.
More significant reports show up later in the week with the first read on U.S., Q3 GDP on Thursday. Friday will deliver American and Canadian employment numbers as well as Canadian housing starts.
North American markets were mixed in the early going. The TSX was lower while Wall St. was up.
Bond yields are up 2 bps.
1. November 2013 05:49
No Canadian data today and a light load out of the United States.
The ISM manufacturing index remained strong in October, climbing 0.2% to 56.4%. That's better than expectations and the best performance in about two and-a-half years. Both the new orders and production indexes have registered above 60% for three consecutive months.
North American markets were higher again in the early going. The market rally this year has taken the Dow and S&P to repeated record highs, leading some analysts to call for a pullback, especially amid some signs of slowing growth, like an earnings season marked by tepid revenue
Bond yields are up 5 - 6 bps.
31. October 2013 05:06
There is just one Canadian report today. Real GDP for August clocked in with a 0.3% increase over July. That was slightly better that the 0.2% forecast. The increase puts annualized Canadian GDP growth at 2% for August.
The weekly report on first time claims for jobless benefits in the U.S. fell by 10,000. The figure continues to reflect irregularities caused by a backlog in processing claims in California and the government shutdown in Washington. The decline was just a little short of expectations. The four week rolling average increased by 8,000.
North American markets were mixed in the early going today. Yesterday's early gains disappeared as markets digested the results of the FOMC meeting. While there was no change to the Fed's stimulus plans the central bank did not back away from its desire to begin tapering.
Bond yields are down 1 bps.
30. October 2013 04:43
There is no Canadian data today, but out of the U.S. the monthly precursor to the government's employment numbers is out and it is disappointing. Private payroll processor ADP says the private sector in American generated 130,000 new jobs this month. Expectations had been for 150,000. September's tally has been cut by 21,000. The government numbers will be posted a week from Friday. They have been delayed by the government shutdown in Washington, which is sure to have an impact on the totals.
Markets, though, are waiting for the results of today's meeting of the U.S. Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Investor enthusiasm remains high on the, virtually universal, expectation there will be no tapering of the central bank's $85 billion a month bond buying program. Any commentary coming out of today's meeting will likely focus on the economic slap delivered by the government shutdown.
North American markets displayed their on-going exuberance starting today higher, following yesterday's record setting closes on the Dow and S&P 500.
Bond yields are down 2 bps.