9. June 2011 07:07
Another day, another disappointing jobs stat out of the US. Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 427k (exp. 419k), a level that continues to be much too high (and headed in the wrong direction) at this stage of the cycle. On a positive note, the US trade deficit declined considerably and was much lower than had been expected on the back of an increase in exports and a decrease in imports. While it appears that the weak dollar policy is affecting the composition of trade in and out of the US, the $43.7bn monthly deficit remains a huge drag on that already tapped out economy.
In all, it seems that the market is giving a bit more consideration to the unexpectedly positive trade data, sending rates a few bps higher this morning.
In contrast, Canada’s trade balance seems to be heading in the wrong direction. Canada ran a trade deficit of $900MM for April (exp. was for surplus of $600MM), and the $600MM surplus for March was revised lower by $1bn. Overall trade fell in April, however exports fell more than did imports.
Watch for Canada’s May employment report, released Friday 7am.