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Canada’s GDP data for July released

  • Jason Ellis, Senior Vice President and Managing Director, Capital Markets

Greetings.

Short one today.  I’m just back from the west coast and I feel like I took a tranquilizer dart to the jugular, so let’s do this.

The Facts
Canada GDP data for July was released this morning at 8:30 EST. GDP was unchanged month over month versus +0.1% expected and +0.3% last month. GDP was up 3.8% year over year versus +3.9% expected and +4.3% last month. Canada 5-year bond yield is 1.73% and the Canada 10-year bond yield is 2.08%, both down 5 basis points following the GDP data.

The Details
Coming in below the expected +0.1%, July represents the first downside miss in month over month GDP this year.   The data reflected broad weakness across most sectors.  To put the result in perspective, GDP averaged monthly gains of +0.4% during the first 6 months of 2017 and +0.3% during the last six months of 2016.  It was an improbable pace, and July may mark the beginning of a cooling off period and a return to a more sustainable growth rate for the economy. 

This was the last GDP report until the BoC rate meeting on October 25th, and given the backdrop of Governor Poloz’s ‘dovish’ comments earlier this week, the probability of a rate hike in October has fallen to 25% from 50% just a week ago. 

If you follow the bouncing ball, you’ll see that softer than expected GDP combined with a BoC governor who just said he will proceed “cautiously” has created a ‘dovish’ tone to the market leading to falling bond yields (and rising bond prices).   Savvy?

The Other Stuff
No doubt, lots of other stuff happened this week, but Treasury Guy was in Palm Desert sucking the marrow out of life, so I didn’t pay it much attention.  I’m looking to keep the good times rolling this weekend.  I’ve actually got a pretty nice little Saturday planned.  Going to Home Depot.  Yeah…buy some wallpaper, maybe get some flooring, stuff like that.  Maybe Bed, Bath & Beyond, I don’t know…if I’ll have enough time.

Nah…I’m just kidding.  I’ll be filling the beer funnel up as soon as I get out of here.  Once it hits your lips, it so good!

Borrow early and borrow often, and be safe out there.

Treasury Guy
Senior Vice President and Managing Director, Capital Markets