Treasury Guy: Signing Off
- Expert perspectives
- Oct 23, 2026
- Jason Ellis, Former President and CEO, First National Financial LP
Greetings from the artist formerly known as Treasury Guy.
Here we are. Today is my last day at First National. It’s been 22 years, 3 months, and 25 days. Not that anyone is counting.
This will be my final dispatch. I realize this may come as a shock to some readers. Mostly because many of you probably assumed Treasury Guy retired years ago and nobody told HR.
Alas, it’s been many moons since my last post, and the evil marketing department has coerced me into one last commentary on my way out the door. They threatened to withhold my obligatory retirement swag bag of overstocked First National coffee mugs, water bottles and XL golf shirts. Who needs a Rolex when you can have a Mouse Pad from 2015.
A quick history lesson. The Treasury Guy commentary first appeared years ago in response to a request from the commercial mortgage team. They were looking for a quick update on interest rates and the market forces driving them. I dutifully wrote what I thought was a concise, fact-based summary of events. The feedback suggested that it was too technical. I guess I used too many multi-syllabic words. Somewhat annoyed, I wrote the second iteration in a deliberately casual, borderline sarcastic tone, mixing commentary on the central bank with important news like how Kraft Dinner was going to be less orange going forward. All written as if authored by a sock puppet writing with crayons. Well…strangely, my sarcasm seemed to hit the right balance, and the Treasury Guy was off and running with recurring posts composed of mortgage news, movie quotes and memes.
I’m not going to even try to add practical value to this commentary. There will be no summary of current financial events or interest rate prognostications. You know I’ve always avoided forecasting the future path of interest rates. Best I can do is tell you that rates will go up, unless they go down, in which case they will have declined. If they go down, it won’t last, except in the case that it does, but then only temporarily.
Anyway, instead of an economic circumlocution, I thought it would be more interesting to get into the way back machine and explore the evolution of interest rates during my time at First National. As Inigo Montoya said, “Let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up”. So, I present below a career summarized in one picture: 22 years and 3 months of 5-year government bond yields and Bank of Canada overnight rates:
In summary it is a career squeezed between the dramatic decline in rates during the global financial crisis in 2007/2008 and the dramatic increase in rates in 2022/2023 in response to runaway inflation following copious amounts fiscal and monetary stimuli applied during the pandemic. In between, we see a prolonged period of historically low rates that drove fantastic growth in the mortgage market. This extended period of accommodative monetary policy probably goes a long way to explaining the success I enjoyed despite my obvious lack of qualifications.
Looking back, I’ve spent a career watching markets and mortgage rates oscillate through every imaginable scenario. Treasury Guy has been wrong often enough to be uniquely qualified to conclude that nobody actually knows what markets or rates will do.
Meanwhile, despite me, First National has grown, changed and succeeded through every market cycle, crisis, and global pandemic. The people here remain smarter than Treasury Guy, which is fortunate because they are the ones staying after I’m gone.
Over the years I’ve been fortunate to work alongside exceptional colleagues, outstanding brokers, dedicated lenders, trusted stakeholders and more than few peers who wisely never sought my advice.
The mortgage industry has given me friendships, challenges, opportunities and memories I could never have imagined when I began my career at First National.
For all of that I am deeply grateful. But Treasury Guy has run out of time and commentary.
To borrow from Ferris Bueller: Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.
To borrow from the mortgage market: Forecasts are temporary, maturity dates eventually arrive and every term comes up for renewal.
This one won’t.
To be honest, when I first started writing Treasury Guy commentaries, I only imagined a handful of people would read it. Mostly my mother. Possibly by accident.
Instead, many of you actually followed the posts. Some sent feedback. Some shared them. A few even laughed at the jokes. That group continues to surprise me.
Thanks for reading.
Treasury Guy Out.
PS: Please do me one favour. Remember to be kind to each other…especially your underwriter. We’re all in this together.
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