Residential Market Commentary - Fall housing forecast improves...a little

Various fall forecasts for the Canadian housing market are calling for modest growth.  The worst fears about U.S. tariff turmoil, have eased but buyers remain cautious.  Plenty of them are waiting for another rate cut by the Bank of Canada, and further improvements to affordability.   

British Columbia and Ontario continue to be the main drivers of movement in the market.  Increasing inventories in both provinces have nudged sales up and prices down.  Buyers have more choice, more time and more bargaining power, and they appear to be taking advantage of all three. 

In Vancouver, the Canadian Real Estate Association’s aggregate MLS Home Price Index (HPI) is down 3.2% ($38,000) from a year ago and more than 9.0% ($118,000) from its peak in the spring of 2022.  Vancouver remains the most expensive market in the country with a benchmark home price of $1.14 million. 

In Toronto, the benchmark price has fallen below $1 million to $971,500.  Prices are down 5.5% (or more than $55,000) in the past year, and are 25% (or more than $320,000) lower than they were at the market peak in early 2022.

Housing economist Robert Hogue describes the current market as “uneven and fragile” in his latest forecast.  He points to modest, month-over-month, improvements in home resales from August to September in select markets.  Winnipeg, Regina, and Toronto posted seasonally adjusted gains.  However, most major centers – including Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Hamilton, Ottawa, Montreal, and Halifax – experienced sales declines.