First National Financial LP

Residential Market Commentary - No surprises in CREA’s November numbers

  • First National Financial LP

The colder weather has arrived and there is a definite chill in Canada’s real estate market.  The latest figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association show sales, prices and new listing were all lower in November.

Sales slipped 3.3% between October and November and dropped 38.9% from a year earlier.  Last November saw near record sales though.  Looking at pre-pandemic numbers shows sales off by about 13% from the 10-year average for the month.

The national average home price is down 12% from last year at $632,800.  That is 22% below the peak price reached in February, just before the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates.  With the heavy influence of Toronto and Vancouver calculated out of the equation the national average price comes in at just below $510,000.

Using CREA’s preferred measure, the Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index, prices dipped 1.4% from October and are down 11.5% from the February peak.

New listings remain sluggish, down 1.3% from October.  With the exception of 2019, this November saw the fewest number of new listings for the month in 17 years.  However, new listings did slightly outpace sales bringing the sales-to-new listing ratio to 49.9%.  Based on a comparison with long-term averages, about 70% of local markets are currently in balanced territory.

“There were no big surprises in the November housing numbers, with the data showing the same trends of lower sales and moderating prices we’ve been seeing for a number of months now,” said CREA Chair Jill Oudil.